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‘Sustainability’ and ‘decarbonisation’ – two words that are inciting meaningful industry change across every corner of the globe. As such, in the road freight industry alone, 70% of executives and experts have outlined decarbonisation as the leading, or a top three, priority for their organisation.¹ As a result, 47% are predicting a change in the types of vehicles that make up their fleet, while 53% expect a change in fuel types.¹

Powered by various short- and long-term challenges, trends, and solutions, global fleets must navigate their unique path to more efficient operations to ensure sustainable progress is achieved. A pathway that is increasingly shaped by how fleets respond to these two developments – different vehicle powertrains and new fuel options – as well as how successfully they can identify potential efficiencies for their current fleet.

Previously, regulatory changes often acted as a ‘push’ for fleets to comply with more efficient operations. However, in a constantly evolving industry landscape, early adopter fleets are seeing significant benefits linked to gaining operational expertise ahead of time, such as meeting company decarbonisation goals and enhancing their customer offers. Over the last few decades, for example, many large cities have started introducing environmental regulations, such as the Ultra-Low Emissions Zone in London, the Crit’Air vignette sticker scheme across France or the ban on diesel vehicles in Tokyo, which dates back to 2000 – all of which are, in part, designed to improve air quality.

In turn – and in order to maintain their licence to operate – fleets are positioning their vehicles and company targets to comply with these measures. After all, 20% of procurement officers surveyed by McKinsey & Company suggest that their organisations now use sustainability measures as primary criteria in sourcing or supplier decisions, showing that the business case for change is being driven by customer sentiment as well as local regulation.²

Therefore, the longer-term investment of upgrading to an alternative powertrain is increasingly considered an opportunity rather than a cost. This is especially true given the fact that regulatory bodies like the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) are encouraging the growth of new, lower-emission refuelling infrastructure, which helps to both support this transition indirectly while also negating concerns around range anxiety and limited refuelling networks.³

Although this can be an expensive transition to make, while vehicle timelines also come into play regarding investment decisions – especially when you consider that the average age of a truck can be around 14 years.⁴ All of which means it is equally important that today’s internal combustion engine trucks are continually improved when it comes to both particulate emissions that occur at the exhaust or CO₂ emissions linked to fuel consumption and efficiency. Which is why in the European Union, for example, the former is tackled by the various European emission standards, while the latter comes under the European Commission’s relatively recent Vehicle Energy Consumption Calculation Tool (VECTO).

One immediate step that does not demand as significant an investment, however, is to optimise your lubrication. By ensuring you have the right oil and specification for your current needs, you can make an instant impact on the efficiency of your fleet. Though, this does rely on a fleet taking advantage of the latest lubrication technology, since the demands of modern engines – a smaller sump and higher piston fire temperatures, for example – call for higher performing oil and the protection that it brings. Only then can the system deliver the fuel economy needed to help reduce unnecessary emissions. And better yet, once the lubrication is in place, it requires no monitoring efforts or driver behaviour changes.

While regulatory changes offer a baseline for industry progress, global fleets are determining the rate of adoption themselves. Keeping a handle on operating costs is a priority for fleets of all sizes, and with the rise in fuel expenses contributing to fleet expenditure, investing in technologies that allow for improved efficiency and profitability is critical.⁵

With a range of solutions available, yet no fixed route to low-emissions operations, education is therefore necessary. Whether an owner-driver or a large corporation, researching and developing an effective strategy can help fleets discover the options available and how they can benefit business – which includes evaluating industry competition as well. For instance, for those in the US, the North American Council for Freight Efficiency (NACFE) Industry benchmarking tool allows operators to see what is being done by leading fleets in the areas of: chassis; powertrain; tractor and trailer aerodynamics; idling; tyres and wheels; and operating practices.⁶ In fact, NACFE suggests that fleet operators in the US are predominantly improving fuel economy by focusing on the adoption of trailer skirts, automated transmission and lower viscosity engine oils.⁶

By working with a trusted advisor like Shell to implement an effective fuel and lubricants strategy based on these invaluable insights, fleets can benefit from the marginal gains related to fuel efficiency or lower maintenance costs. And, while physical vehicle modifications may be expensive and time consuming, the attractiveness of lubricants are that they are easy to control centrally, straightforward to switch to, and don’t require costly monitoring or change processes.

For example, low viscosity oils can help reduce fuel consumption instantly due to less energy being lost during day-to-day applications. Meanwhile, the advanced additives that an oil like Shell Rimula R7 contains can help to protect against performance-robbing deposits – keeping pistons cleaner and maintenance costs lower. In fact, it is additions like this which prove that not all oils are created equal. Why? Because, while it is easy to develop a low viscosity oil, it is much more difficult to create a thinner oil that is also durable enough to support fuel economy by protecting your vehicle’s:

But this education isn’t restricted to fleets alone because the future of commercial road transport will consist of a mosaic of different fuels. An estimated 36.5% commercial vehicles (CVs) are to be BEVs and FCEVs by 2030 in North America and the figure is expected to be as high as 50.6% in Europe. The remaining 63.5% and 49.4% of CVs in North America and Europe are expected to comprise of conventional ICEs running on diesel, gasoline, and natural gas.⁷ It is important for solutions providers to recognise the different stages of each technology option. This perhaps begins with the most immediately available solution: low-carbon fuels. As evidenced by Shell’s involvement in the BioLNG EuroNet consortium, which brings together industry leaders including Scania and IVECO to develop the European LNG network, aiming to put 2,000 LNG powered heavy-duty trucks and 39 LNG stations on the road.⁸

Both battery and hydrogen fuel cell technology show promising signs of supporting the sector’s decarbonisation as well. Yet, while the current growth of alternative fuels is clear, their long-term market share in the energy mix of the future will be more difficult to predict as the energy transition progresses. Volvo Trucks are aiming for half of its global sales to be electric by 2030 whist the Traton Group has similar targets for 2030, with plans for 50% of its long-haul trucks to be zero-emission by 2030. Daimler targets to decarbonise up to 60% of their fleet in Europe by 2030 and Scania aims to increase its electric vehicles sales to 50% by 2030.⁹ “It is a reassuring sign that all major OEMs are placing sustainability at their core growth strategies and are leading the push towards zero-emission vehicles, setting achievable targets by 2030. However, on the demand side, matters do give cause for concern as companies are concerned with the upfront purchase price of electric trucks and other infrastructure challenges which can come along,” says Sven Thiede.

Despite several OEMs placing significant investment in battery and fuel-cell electric vehicles, and battery technologies becoming increasingly efficient, there is still no single front runner in the race for future alternative fuels and powertrains.¹⁰ Hydrogen, meanwhile, still requires a substantial level of infrastructure development. 

Therefore, with businesses pressured to determine the best technology for their operations over the next few decades, so that they can opt for widescale adoption, enlisting support from industry experts will be crucial. Especially when you consider that different segments will require different solutions, with low-carbon fuels more suited to heavy-duty and long-haul applications, while light-duty vehicles may find more success with battery electric and hydrogen fuel cell technology. Equally important will be making sure operational foundations – such as lubrication and maintenance practices – are as strong as possible. Especially given lubrication’s ability to improve efficiency in the here and now, while potential future solutions such as alternative fuels are developed further.

While alternative fuels and powertrains are important from an operational standpoint, artificial intelligence (AI) and digital fleet management tools are also becoming increasingly useful at identifying and eliminating inefficiencies. For example, the introduction of transport management systems (TMS), which offer fleets insights into all aspects of their operations – from telematics to prognostics and visibility – shows how the digital solutions ecosystem is growing. Globally, the penetration rate of such telematics systems in commercial vehicles stood at 28% in 2022 and is estimated to reach about 65% by the end of 2030.¹¹ Telematics and fleet management are perceived as productivity tools and are waiting to be taken advantage of by transportation companies to optimise and maximise their fleet operations in an efficient way. Telematics systems, like our telematics solution, can offer instant operational insights into important markers like vehicle idle time and fuel efficiency, allowing for improved productivity and fuel savings. In comparison, AI-driven tools like prognostics allow fleets to detect issues and schedule maintenance, helping to reduce the risk of unplanned downtime.

And with global supply chain value expected to reach $42.46 billion by 2027, having full visibility of where your product is at each stage of its journey is becoming more important to fleets. ¹² The rise of digitalisation throughout the freight brokerage value chain is also improving the efficiency and flow of freight from pick-up to drop-off. The global road freight brokerage market is estimated to reach $943.9 billion by 2025, of which automated on-demand freight brokerage is expected to contribute about $35.29 billion.¹³ The global real-time freight visibility market is in turn expected to be valued at approximately $1 billion by the end of 2026 with freight visibility platforms like project44, FourKites, and Shippeo continuing to widen their industry-focused solutions and value propositions to streamline and optimise customers’ downstream transportation events.¹⁴ Mubarak Moosa notes that “Rising commodity prices and increasing trade wars among the major economies have forced companies to reinvent their supply chain processes. Real-time visibility platforms with their surplus data repository on freight and transportation operations can efficiently support and deliver infrastructure modernisation, and other strategic initiatives like leveraging Internet of Things (IoT) solutions to develop unique value propositions for trade and sustainability intelligence”. Freight visibility platforms facilitate cost reduction measures and customer experience improvement by identifying operational bottlenecks by means of predictive analytics thereby helping shippers and other end-users.

This is the thinking behind digital freight forwarding companies like InstaFreight, which allows customers to book freight transport and offers a track-and-trace functionality for shipments. What’s more, since the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development suggests a notable proportion of European (27%), US (36%) and Asian (40%) trucks all travel without cargo every year, optimising vehicle utilisation by reducing the number of empty trucks can help to increase efficiency and reduce unnecessary fleet emissions.¹⁵

As decarbonisation continues to drive more business choices, heavy-duty fleets have a lot to consider when futureproofing their operations in light of a lower- or zero-carbon future. While there is no set way of determining the best route for your business, making informed decisions based on knowledge and expertise from trusted collaborators, like Shell and Frost & Sullivan, can help make the journey more straightforward – especially when it comes to a specialist topic like lubrication, where the right investment can make a significant operational impact.

¹ Based on 150 respondents including carriers, industry businesses and organisations. Shell. “Decarbonising Road Freight: Getting into Gear—Industry Perspectives.” 2021

² Celine Cherel-Bonnemaison, Gustav Erlandsson, Ben Ibach, and Peter Spiller. “” McKinsey & Company. September 22, 2021

³ European Automobile Manufacturers Association. “.”&�Բ�����;ACEA. 16 December 2020

⁴ European Automobile Manufacturers Association. “.”&�Բ�����;ACEA. 02 April 2022

⁵ Frost & Sullivan, 2022 Global Medium- and Heavy-duty Commercial Vehicle Aftermarket Outlook, August 2022

⁶ North American Council for Freight Efficiency. “” 2022

⁷ Frost & Sullivan. “”. 17 May, 2023

⁸ BioLNG EuroNet. “.”

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¹⁰ Volvo Trucks. “.”&�Բ�����;Volvo. 14 September, 2022

¹¹ Frost & Sullivan. “”.&�Բ�����;2&�Բ�����;�Ѳ���,&�Բ�����;2023

¹² Business Wire. “.” 07 January, 2022

¹³ Frost & Sullivan. “”. 31 December, 2018

¹⁴ Frost & Sullivan. “”. 11 July, 2022

¹⁵ Hanan Friedman. “.”&�Բ�����;TruckNet. 21 October, 2021

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_{This is the thinking behind digital freight forwarding companies like InstaFreight, which allows customers to book freight transport and offers a track-and-trace functionality for shipments. What’s more, since the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development suggests a notable proportion of European (27%), US (36%) and Asian (40%) trucks all travel without cargo every year, optimising vehicle utilisation by reducing the number of empty trucks can help to increase efficiency and reduce unnecessary fleet emissions.}