What are the previous Shell scenarios?

What are the previous Shell Scenarios?

We have been developing possible visions of the future since the 1970s, helping generations of Shell leaders explore ways forward and make better decisions. Scenario planning asks 鈥渨hat if?鈥� questions encouraging leaders to consider events that may only be remote possibilities, and stretch their thinking. Our scenarios also help governments, academia and business in understanding possibilities and uncertainties ahead.

The Energy Security Scenarios (2023)

Our scenarios look into the possible consequences of recent events, including Russia鈥檚 invasion of Ukraine. How could the world fight climate change when its most immediate desire is for security?

Discover more about The Energy Security Scenarios

The Energy Transformation Scenarios (2021) (PDF)

Three new scenarios extend across the century and consider the pace of energy transitions and the impact on the climate.

The Energy Transformation Scenarios - Underlying data

Explore the data behind the energy landscapes in our Energy Transformation Scenarios.

The Energy Transformation Scenarios - Underlying data (XLSX, 2 MB)

Rethinking the 2020s (2020)

COVID-19 is changing the world in significant ways. The Shell Scenarios team has explored the potential impact of the crisis.

Shell Scenarios archive

Sky (2018) (PDF)

By 2070, there is a possibility of a new energy system to emerge. Explore Sky, a technically possible, but challenging pathway for society to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Sky - Underlying data (XLSX, 2 MB)

Download the Sky scenario data-set to see the numbers that help test, quantify and explore this scenario.

A Better Life with a Healthy Planet (2016) (PDF)

How could the world meet future energy demand while reducing net carbon emissions to zero?

New Lens on the Future (2013) (PDF)

Our New Lens Scenarios explore two possible ways the 21st century could unfold, with dramatically different implications for society and energy.

Signals and Signposts (2011) (PDF)

Signals and Signposts is a supplement to our 2008 publication, Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050. It assesses the long-term effects of the financial crash of 2008, and the resulting economic recession, on the global energy system.

Scramble and Blueprints (2008) (PDF)

Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050 considers two plausible versions of the future. The first scenario, Scramble sees policymakers pay little attention to more efficient energy use until supplies are tight. In the second scenario, Blueprints, local actions begin to address the challenges of economic development, energy security and environmental pollution.

An Explorer鈥檚 Guide (2008) (PDF)

An Explorer鈥檚 Guide is written for people who would like to build and use scenarios or who want to enhance their scenario skills. It describes the approach used to develop a set of global scenarios, illustrated with examples from our own assessments of the future.

Signposts (2007) (PDF)

The Trilemma Triangle provides a map of relations and interactions among market participants, civil society and states. In particular, it examines the interplay of three complementary, but occasionally competing, objectives of efficiency, social cohesion and justice and security.

Global Scenarios to 2025 (2005) (PDF)

The future business environment: trends, trade-offs and choices.

People and Connections: Global Scenarios to 2020 (2002) (PDF)

Which people and connections will be most powerful and influential in shaping the future? A globally interconnected meritocracy based on individual freedom and the American dream? Or many networks reflecting the persisting power of culture and history?

Energy Needs, Choices and Possibilities: Scenarios to 2050 (2001) (PDF)

The two scenarios 颅- Dynamics as Usual, and The Spirit of the Coming Age - contrast a progression in energy use from coal to gas to renewables, against the potential for a hydrogen-based economy.

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